From November 10 to 21, the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place in the city of Belém do Pará (Brazil), coinciding with the 10th anniversary of the adoption of the Paris Agreement and the 30th anniversary of the first COP in Berlin. Since then, thanks to these multilateral climate agreements, including the Kyoto Protocol, measures have been adopted to tackle climate change, although these are not sufficient to avoid increasing the temperature above 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, one of the main objectives of the Paris Agreement. However, according to the World Meteorological Organization, we cannot give up on this goal. Hence the importance of continuing to work within the framework of the COPs.
This year, COP is being held amid an unstable climate caused by the arrival of a hurricane that is destabilizing the foundations of the world order and international cooperation, which is so necessary to tackle climate change. President Trump’s Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements Executive Order, mandating the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement as well as any funding commitments, along with the revocation of the Climate Finance Plan aimed at providing or mobilizing financial resources to help developing countries reduce and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and adapt to the impacts of climate change, is a blow to the only multilateral forum focused on combating climate change.
This COP is being held a few months after the International Court of Justice issued its advisory opinion on the obligations of states relating to the protection of the climate system under international law. This opinion is a breath of fresh air, and among its many important points of deliberation, it highlights the obligation under customary law or international custom that states have to prevent significant damage to the environment, including damage to the climate system. This means that, regardless of whether or not they are party to climate treaties, all states are subject to this obligation.
Before the COP takes place, all countries are expected to have finally submitted the third round of their nationally determined contributions, known as NDCs, a kind of climate and energy plan that countries must prepare to establish their mitigation targets and the policies and measures to achieve them, as well as measures to adapt to climate change, among other aspects. According to the Synthesis report of the UNFCCC Secretariat, October 2025, the sum of the plans submitted as of September 30 are not aligned with the 1.5 °C target, but they do represent progress and most have taken into account the Global Stocktake adopted at COP 28 in Dubai, including the call to abandon fossil fuels and triple the presence of renewables in global energy systems. The EU Environment Council meeting on November 4 agreed on a 90% net reduction in emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, with up to 5% of international credits to be used to achieve this target. China presented its NDC for 2035 on November 3, reaffirming the targets announced by President Xi Jinping in September 2025, which include the goal of reducing economy-wide GHG emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035. It also includes quantitative targets for GHGs other than CO₂ and specific measures for sectors such as energy, forestry, and transportation.
COP30 will finalize the Baku-Belém road map to reach USD 1.3 trillion per year in climate finance, in order to better reflect the needs of developing countries, given that the new quantified financing target agreed at COP 29 in Baku (USD 300 billion per year by 2035) is not considered sufficient to achieve the temperature target. The Report of the Circle of Finance Ministers presented in October 2025 contains five priorities: mobilization of public and private resources; reform of the global financial architecture; innovative financing instruments, such as the launch of the “Tropical Forest Forever Fund” and the “Open Coalition for Carbon Market Integration,” to create a voluntary alliance between countries seeking to harmonize and connect their national regulated carbon market systems; energy transition and mitigation; and finally, adaptation and resilience.
Another item on the COP agenda is the adoption of indicators to measure progress toward the Paris Agreement’s Global Adaptation Goal (GGA). This would represent the culmination of a process aimed at adopting a set of 100 indicators aligned with the 11 objectives of the 2023 GGA Framework. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2025 Adaptation Gaps report, entitled Running on Empty, which will inform the COP negotiations, highlights progress in planning, as most countries have at least one national adaptation policy, strategy, or plan, but warns of a growing financing gap for developing countries to adapt to the effects of climate change, which puts lives, livelihoods, and economies at risk from intensified impacts such as heat waves, floods, and droughts. It notes that the adaptation financing needs of these countries will amount to USD 310-365 billion annually by 2035.
The adoption of a new gender plan to integrate gender considerations into climate action is also expected, based on the enhanced Lima Work Program on Gender. Key areas include capacity building, promoting gender balance in negotiations, ensuring gender-responsive implementation, and improving monitoring and reporting.
Countries will also decide how to move forward with the Just Transition Work Program (JTWP) established at COP27, the UNFCCC’s first dedicated framework to promote equitable and people-centered climate action. Many countries recognize the importance of linking it to finance, capacity building, technology transfer, adaptation, and gender equality, so that the principles of just transition are translated into real action.
The latest item added to the agenda is the promotion of international cooperation and the search for solutions to concerns raised by unilateral measures related to climate change and that restrict trade, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation Regulation. although this is not new and dates back to the 1990s when the first trade dispute on environmental grounds between the US and Mexico took place, the Mexican tuna case, under the former GATT. The aim is to address the negative impacts of these unilateral measures on developing countries, such as high administrative costs, loss of trade competitiveness, and barriers to decarbonization, by promoting equitable multilateral cooperation. Brazil has proposed the launch of an “Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade” (IFCCT) as a mechanism to address this.
The COP agenda is packed with issues to be addressed in a scenario of great uncertainty. However, one of the essential principles of climate negotiations should apply: uncertainty should not be an obstacle to taking the necessary measures to address the major challenge of protecting the climate system, or the precautionary principle.
